Random Image 9:58 AM

This brought a smile to my face that won't take 2 hours for the coroner to wipe away.

Gambling on Super Bowl XLIV 11:58 PM

Last year I gave my initial take on gambling on the Super Bowl. I will not go into as much detail due to the fact that it is late Saturday night, and most people thought it was boring the first time around. But, for the nerds and degenerates out there, here is my take on betting on this year's game and how my Super Bowl squares came out.

This year I had more luck in my draw for Super Bowl squares and drew the (4,0) and the (6,2) squares, the Colts will always be listed as the first number since they are the favorite to win. My model for valuing the squares which is based off of the results of all prior Super Bowls values these squares at $11.79 and $0.92, respectively. The initial purchase price for each square was $5.00.

Thus I am looking at a theoretical $12.71 of value for my $10.00 investment, or a 27.1% theoretical gain; much better than last years draw where my $4.00 investment was valued at $2.19. The only additional change this year is I purchased a 50% share of the (2,0) square. This investment cost me $1.00 and I project the square has an intrinsic value of $4.99. I am now holding a squares that are theoretically worth $17.70 from an initial investment of $11.00, or a 60.9% gain. I think this was a shrewd deal, but it doesn't matter unless I get paid. I am interested in starting a secondary market for those who are interested in hedging or monetizing their investments in Super Bowl squares in the future, but I realize that most people are not nearly as nerdy or as big of degenerate gamblers as I am.

Now for the more exciting betting. Last year I made projections on the coin toss, winner, over/under and the National Anthem and was correct in most of my projections. Here are my picks for this year:

Coin Toss: Again, this is the dumbest prop bet that is out there, but last year I nearly had the trifecta on this bet. I projected that Pittsburgh would call tails (correct), that the flip would be heads (correct) and that Arizona would elect to receive (incorrect). Arizona was the first team in the history of the Super Bowl to elect to not receive the ball at the beginning of the game. This year I predict the Saints will call tails, the toss will land tails and the Saints will elect to receive.

Winner: Vegas is pretty good at these things and I am going to have to agree with them that the Colts will win. The favorite has won 70% of all Super Bowls and I don't think this one will be any different. The Colts are favored by 5 to 6 points depending on the sportsbook which is a slightly lower spread than usual, but enough to make me uncomfortable betting on the Saints. I personally am rooting for the Saints as I can't stand to think about the fetus-headed Manning winning another Super Bowl.

Over/Under: This is a tough one this year as there are two high flying offensive teams involved that both have weak defenses. The over/under is currently set at 57 which is well above the average of 43. There have only been 8 of 43 Super Bowls that have had more than 57 points scored and the last one was in 2004. Despite my argument above, I think the game could be a little more sloppy than expected and would take the under on this one.

National Anthem: I think this was the easiest money last year with the over/under set at 123 seconds for Jennifer Hudson. Ms. Hudson then went on to sing a 130 second National Anthem. This year Carrie Underwood is set to perform the National Anthem and the line is set at 101 seconds. Scouring YouTube for her performances at sporting events shows that she is averaging about 99-100 seconds per appearance at a major sporting event. Many people think that she would stretch it out for the biggest venue of all sporting events, but the trend for her is getting shorter and shorter with each appearance since 2005. Looking back historically at white artists which average 97.1 seconds compared to black artists which average 116.2 seconds, women which average 113.9 vs. men at 94.2, it is a toss up at where she will come in. The only trend that gives me more confidence in this bet is the fact that country artists average consistently shorter National Anthem times than any other genre. Therefor, bet the under on the National Anthem. I would guess it will come in at 99 seconds.

Well, good luck to everyone in your betting this year and don't come after me if you lose any money. If you are looking for me I will probably be hiding from my bookie for a while.

Sex Trophy 6:08 PM

When you think about it, babies are kind of like trophies that are awarded for doing something right. You practice and practice and eventually you receive an award for all of your effort. The award is a miniature little person that you show off to other people.

This is my crude way of announcing that the 1st Lady and I have just been awarded a sex trophy. The trophy presentation should be sometime in July. We are happy to be awarded this prize, but I have to note that I feel a little unworthy as we should have practiced more.

The Word of the Day 6:40 PM

So The First Lady and I were driving the other day having a conversation that went something like this:

1st Lady: "This song is by Kris Allen."

Me: "He's the guy who beat that gaywad in last season's Idol, right?"

1st Lady: *gives look that somehow shows mild amusement and serious disgust all at once*

"Did you just call him a gaywad?"

Me: "Yeah, why?"

1st Lady: " I have never heard anyone use that word."

Me: "You didn't grow up in Rigby."

We then had a discussion about words that I use that she hadn't heard before. Some of my favorites are, "renob", "bodagit" and "dickfor". Thankfully Napoleon Dynamite brought the word bodagit into the limelight. She's still so glad that she married a 12 year old.

NYC 8:17 PM

Sorry I haven't updated lately, I'm lazy. I was back in NYC this week for work and had a chance to take co-workers to Del Frisco's for steaks and Magnolia for cupcakes and banana cream pudding. I was also reminded of this great clip from the Colbert Report. I am a big fan of the original song with Jay-Z and Alicia Keys, but Colbert's version is a little more realistic for me and the other yuppies.

The Colbert Report	Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Alicia Keys - Empire State of Mind (Part II) Broken Down
www.colbertnation.com
Colbert Report Full Episodes Political Humor Economy

My only issue with this song is the lyrics, "Concrete jungle where dreams are made of". Am I the only one bothered by this atrocious English? Shouldn't it be either, "Concrete jungle that dreams are made of" or "Concrete jungle where dreams are made"? I guess having people edit all of my work (except for my blog, natch) makes me uptight about these things.

Christmas links 9:34 PM

Just a quick lazy post of things that have entertained me so far this Christmas Season:

• sketchysantas.com This site is awesome, its amazing what people could get away with before they had to "register".
• Jack Bauer interrogates Santa Claus. This video is worth checking out for those who are fans of torture, Jack Bauer and the holidays.
• Four-year old Christmas thief. If you think your kids are bad, just check out this kid.
• Here's my original post from a few years ago, "Things I Hate About Christmas".

Poker Face 8:51 PM

I've been travelling a lot over the last three weeks, but wanted to quickly post something that I find entertaining. Everyone who knows me knows that I don't spend much time in the dance club, and thus I don't pay much attention to current pop hits, especially ones with annoying lyrics sung by hermaphrodites. Thus, I am not a big Lady Gaga fan, but I found a cover that I think is amazing. Check out Chris Daughtry's version where he completely does a "Chasing Amy" to this song.

This is awesome and shows why he should have won AI; although it may not be as awesome as Christopher Walken's version.